Tip-Off: Thoughts, Predictions, etc. on the Eve of College Basketball

Matt Hoover

It’s been a hot minute since anyone has posted anything of significance here on Out of Our League. (I’m ignoring Derek and Joe’s woeful attempt to pick football games. I’m trying to forget about the hundred or so dollars that the Straight Cash Homie Locks of the Week ended up costing me.) But today is a new day. Really, though, it’s not just any new day; it’s College Basketball Eve. In case you've yet to catch on, NCAAM is sort of our thing here at OoOL. In reality, we're more of a college basketball blog than a sports blog. So luckily for us and for you, it is, once again, our season to shine! Here are a few things to keep in mind as we set off down the road to JerryJonesville and this year’s Final Four...

Coach Cal is excited for the nation to witness the power
of this fully-armed and operational Kentucky squad. 

1. The Year of the Juggernaut? My intuition might be way out of whack, but, to me, it feels like this year’s top teams are all completely, completely loaded. Darth John Calipari, Dark Lord of the Wildcats, has mustered what many are considering to be the most talented group of players ever assembled in the history of college basketball down in Lexington. Tom Izzo is returning the entire Appling-Harris-Payne trio as well as many supporting cast members from last season’s impressive Sweet 16 run (which could have easily been an Elite 8 run in any of the other tournament regions. As you'll recall, the Midwest was brutal.) up at Michigan State. Freshman Jabari Parker and Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood will make K’s Dukies absolutely loaded at the wings. Defending champions Slick Rick and the Ville return a ton of players from their deep team last year and figure to compete for the trophy again this season. Additionally, Slick Rick and the Ville has all the makings of an outstanding band name. If anyone is in the market for a band name, contact me and we'll hammer out some sort of agreement. I haven't even mentioned Kansas, Arizona, Ohio State, Syracuse, or Michigan yet, and there’s a strong argument that any one of those teams could make a deep, deep run in March. It feels like a very top-heavy group of teams. I’m sure it will be a season full of surprises as usual, but there is a ton of talent all over the college basketball landscape this year, particularly at the top.

2. Post-Tourney Pressure. The trajectory on which a few good games in a NCAA Tournament can launch your college basketball career is absurd and unprecedented throughout team sports. Mitch McGary, a 6-10 hustle player (read: white and unathletic) who averaged 7.5 points per game for Michigan last season, is a Preseason First Team All-American pick because he played out of his God damn mind for about 3 ½ games in March. Andy Enfield, who was virtually unknown to the college basketball world before that fateful weekend in Philadelphia last March, is making well over a million dollars this season as the head coach of USC’s program because he won 2 games. Speaking of FGCU, I will probably never forget the names Brett Comer, Sherwood Brown, and Chase Fieler as long as I am a fan of basketball. These are just a few examples of how heavily tournament success is weighed. It’s a little much at times. It will be interesting to see how McGary, for example, responds to the vast expectations that have been placed upon him. Last year, it was easy for him to get away with his lack of athleticism and technical know-how since he was probably Michigan's 5th option on offence, but he won't have the luxury of sneaking up on teams this season. Can he be a go-to guy? (SPOILER ALERT: probably not)

3. Monster Freshmen. Most people who follow basketball have probably heard of Kansas’s Andrew Wiggins. Most people who follow basketball have also read headlines that say things like, “You’ve Probably Heard of Kentucky's Andrew Wiggins, but Have You Heard of Kentucky’s Julius Randle (and/or Duke’s Jabari Parker)?”All three will likely be impressive to behold. Plenty of NBA teams are said to be “Riggin’ for Wiggins,” but teams who are “Putting Out the Candle for Randle” or “Intentionally Making Our Outlook Darker for Parker” won't be disappointed, either. It will be fun to watch these three, as well as Kentucky’s Harrison twins, Zona’s Aaron Gordon, and various other frosh develop throughout the season. Obviously, Kentucky’s success depends almost entirely on its freshman being able to gel by tourney time, but they're an extreme example. Plenty of very, very good teams will rely on their freshmen this season.

4. This Tuesday. Even though games start on Friday, Tuesday will serve as the spiritual opening day for college basketball. A number of decent matchups are peppered between now and then, but the first two absolutely must-watch games of the season can be seen back-to-back on ESPN Tuesday night. First, raw talent and experience clash in a battle of the nation’s top 2 teams. Darth Calipari leads Kentucky against Izzo’s Michigan State squad. People are jumping on the Michigan State bandwagon much earlier this year compared to the last few years, which makes me somewhat uncomfortable. I actually expect that both Kentucky and Michigan State will be slightly worse than people expect early in the season. A team as young as Kentucky, in spite of all their talent, will probably need a few games to start to get in sync, and Izzo's teams are notorious for getting of to comparatively slow start and then quietly building up momentum on their way to a deep tournament run. It’s an intriguing matchup that will definitely provide an huge early test for both teams. Afterwards, don’t pick up that remote! The nation’s top two freshmen will likely be matched up against each other as Wiggins, coach Bill Self, Derek’s boy Charlie Weis, and Rock-Chalk nation take on Parker, the K-man, Derek’s boy Rasheed SULAIMON, and the Blue Devils. Here we have another top five matchup between two loaded teams that I suspect may initially be better than the teams in the previous game. Both are going to be freakishly athletic this year. Tuesday night is essentially going to be a mini Final Four. Let’s light this candle.

Generally, this article has been pretty bland. I'm not really in the full spirit of the season yet. To make up for how plain Jane this has been, I'll leave you with a few predictions, some standard and some controversial, for the upcoming season. Enjoy.

Let's all try to appreciate Marshall while he's still with us.

• Florida will appear in yet another Elite 8. They'll also beat Kentucky at least once.
• In 4 months, no one will remember who Wichita State is.
• Jim Boeheim will challenge Roy Williams for the title of Grumpiest Old Man in the ACC.
• Bo Ryan, John Thompson III and Frank Haith combined will win fewer tournament games than Slick Rick the Brick Pitino.
• Aaron Craft will win the Peyton Siva award (which, of course, is given annually to the player who has been on his team for 40 years).
• Amile Jefferson will be average 10 points per game for Duke.
• John Calipari will personally oversee the final phases of the construction of the second Death Star.
• Adreian Payne will literally eat Mitch McGary alive at some point this season.
• Kentucky will begin the NCAA tournament with 4 losses. No more, no less.
• LaSalle and Temple will both miss the field in March.
• Tim Higgins doesn’t get this fantasy league together until March.
• Derek and I will decide to try to get tickets for the Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 at Madison Square Garden. We'll think too deeply into my piss-poor, flat out inexcusable performance last year (in which I grossly overpaid for tournament tickets by purchasing them way too early) and end up not getting tickets because we wait too long and it sells out.
• Marshall Henderson’s reckless lifestyle will cost him his life. That’s right. He'll be dead before the season is over. You heard it here first.
• Wisconsin will average just under 8 possessions per game.

Two Final Thoughts:

1. Feel free to sleep on North Carolina. The fact of the matter is Dean Smith has forgotten more about the game of basketball than Roy Williams will ever know.

2. It’s absolutely amazing that Kevin Ware is on schedule to play in Louisville’s second game of the season. As you’ll probably recall, his shin injury in the Elite 8 last year was the worst thing you have ever seen.