Matt Hoover
With less than three
week until Selection Sunday, it’s time for everyone to start paying attention
to college basketball if they haven’t already. If you’re one of the clowns that
doesn’t really watch college basketball until the tournament because you think
the regular season if boring, you missed one of the most exiting regular
seasons in any sport that I can remember. The clusterfuck that is the 2012-13
season makes Syria look like as orderly as an OCD guy’s sock drawer. Seriously,
you goofballs missed out big time. But I’m here to save your asses as usual.
Here are some dos and don’ts for you people as you start thinking about your
brackets...
DO: take Indiana’s #1 ranking seriously. A about a month and a half
ago, it was very fashionable to suggest that there were no truly elite teams in
college hoops this year and that the field was pretty wide opened. Down the
conference stretch, though, Indiana has separated itself from the pack. With
wins against Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan State (2), it’s
clear that this extremely balanced team is for real. Their only losses this
year came against a dangerous Butler team (more on them further down) in OT, a
decent Wisconsin team (more on them further down as well!), and at Illinois on
a rather fluky last-second
play during which Cody Zeller decided to snuggle up and take a little nappie.
The Hoosiers will probably at least one more game before tourney time; they
still have Ohio State at home, at Michigan, and the Big Ten Tournament. If and
when this happens, don’t panic. Indiana and their balanced attack have created
enough separation from the field that they’re the de facto favorite to cut down
the nets in Atlanta.
EDIT: Yeah, I wrote this before Indiana lost at Minnesota tonight. My faith still isn't shaken, though. Cody Zeller had an awful game tonight, which serves as a nice reminder that no matter how much press Oladipo gets or how much their depth is emphasized, they still rely on the consensus Preseason National Player of the Year to play like the consensus Preseason National Player of the Year. As an aside: I hate Tubby Smith.
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| He knows. |
DON’T: hop on the Georgetown bandwagon. When the new polls came out
this week, the Hoyas found themselves ranked in the top 10 for the first time
this season. Whatever you do, do not panic. Keep calm. You may want to take a
moment tonight to go over emergency procedures and locate your nearest
emergency exit. The Hoyas are still coached by John Thompson III, who
understands the game of basketball about as well as your average Miami Heat
fan. He always recruits a very athletic bunch of players and then coaches a
molasses-paced half court offense. It just doesn’t make sense. Unleash your
players’ athleticism and let them play. Don’t imprison them within your ill-conceived set offense[1]. Whatever. For this
reason, I’ve never had much faith in Georgetown’s abilities in March. No matter
how fashionable it may become to get behind the Hoyas this year, I’m sticking
by my guns.
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| Everyone point to Derek's favorite basketball coach! Na, but Brad Stevens has done a lot with a little already at Butler. How will his most talented team ever fare in the big dance? |
DO: have faith in mid-majors. There are currently 6 mid-majors
ranked in the AP Top 25, and the first five teams on the “others receiving
votes” list are also mid-majors. Having been ranked in the top 10 or so for a
decent chunk of the year, the Gonzaga Foreigners won’t be sneaking up on
anybody. Butler is another legitimist Final Four contender. There may not be a
hotter team in the country than Saint Louis at the moment. VCU is another team
that could make a run. The Mountain West has a chance at getting 4 teams in the
tournament. I said in the beginning of the year that the Atlantic 10 would rank
3rd among all conferences in the number of teams they have in the
tournament, and suddenly I don’t look so bat-shit crazy. Basically, mid-majors
are one typical-Xavier-year away from having one of their best showings
collectively in recent memory.
DON’T: miss Miami at Duke on Saturday, March 2nd. We
will learn a tremendous amount about both teams in their rematch at Cameron
Indoor. In spite of what polls are telling us, Duke isn’t the third best team
in the country right now, but they’re also not 27 points worse
than Miami. Until they get Ryan Kelly back (which sounds like it is going to happen), they’re not a legitimate Final Four contender, but they may be able to
make a reasonably deep run in the tournament. Their rematch against Miami
should tell us a lot about where this team stands. I also have concerns
regarding Miami. They lost by 15 at a miserable Wake Forest team (Iona beat
Wake by 28 this year) and played some too-close-for-comfort games against other
ACC foes of questionable quality. This game will be a measuring stick for the U
as well. If either team wins the game decisively, I will have much more faith
in them going forward. Disclaimer, though: If Ryan Kelly comes back (as I suspect
he will) close to full health (which may or may not happen), Duke has to be
considered on the same level as Indiana
DO: reread my
first ever post on here before you fill out your bracket. It’s so
tempting to have faith in the Wisconsin Buzzcuts. Ignore that temptation.
DON’T: forget about Louisville or Arizona. Both Louisville and
Arizona were considered to be among the best teams in the country at certain
points this season. Both have fallen off slightly and are now considered
second-tier teams. Louisville, however, is returning a ton of guys that were
part of their Final Four run last year and are coached by Rick Pitino, who
always seems to have his team playing their best ball in March. Louisville
could very well ride their experience, coaching, and defense to another Final
Four. They should be considered the most dangerous team out of the Big East in
the tourney. Likewise, Arizona should be considered the most dangerous team out
of the Pac-12 (much less impressive than being the most dangerous team out of
the Big East and a little bit being like the best woman at driving, but hey!
Danica Patrick just did something important, I think. I don’t really follow
NASCAR. I enjoy sports….). Arizona has had a bit of a strange year. They were
supposed to be driven by the high-profile freshmen foursome of Kaleb Tarczewski,
Grant Jerrett, Brandon Ashley, and Jackson Callahan. While they’ve all been decent
players, none but Callahan have truly lived up to expectations. Instead,
Arizona has been relying on upperclassmen for most of their scoring. If
Arizona’s freshmen can catch fire (a big “if”), look out.
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| Even after the tragic death of their head coach/ basketball genius/triangle-and-two pioneer/ frumpy sweater advocate Rick Majerus, St. Louis is putting together a great season. |
DO: watch the conference tournaments. I disagree with the idea of
conference tournaments, but I cannot deny how exciting they always prove to be.
Obviously, the Big 10 tournament will be exciting and a number one seed or two
will probably be on the line. The Big East tournament never disappoints. But
don’t sleep on the Big 12 tournament (both Kansas schools and both Oklahoma
schools are solid teams), the A-10 tournament (St. Louis, Butler, VCU, La
Salle, and Temple are all in the March mix, and several teams have the
potential to catch fire during this tournament), and the Pac-12 tournament (a
very top-heavy conference with 3 or 4 very good teams). The setup of the NCAA
Tournament favors teams that are on fire over teams that are super talented,
and we’ve seen many teams carry momentum from their conference tournament into
the big dance and end up doing big things. It’s the kind of year where that
could easily happen yet again.
DON’T: put Michigan in your Final Four. Michigan has had a very
good season, but they simply don’t have what it takes to be playing ball in
April. They probably have the most talented backcourt in the country, which has
been enough to make them a perpetual top 10 team this season and will be enough
to get them through the first few rounds of the tourney, but their somewhat
disorganized slashing offense and their lack of an interior presence will be
their Achilles’s heels. Not having a big man to throw the ball inside to when
perimeter shooting goes cold or the pace is out of control ends up killing a
lot of teams in the tourney. I don’t see how Burke and company will be able to
avoid the same fate.
DO: mute the TV whenever Seth Greenberg is talking. I didn’t mind
the dude at Virginia Tech. I really didn’t. Sure, he didn’t do a whole lot of
winning when it mattered most, but he was at a school where football is the big
thing and no one really gets on a basketball coach for finishing 4th
in the ACC or whatever. I thought it was a weird move that VT fired him. And
nowadays, my God, I wish he was still coaching. He’s horrible. He’s just
horrible.
[1]
For a wonderful, wonderful analysis of pacing in college basketball, check out
this article by Grantland’s Michael Weinreb.
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