Damned If I Do, Damned If I Don’t: Some Things to Keep in Mind as March Madness Approaches

Matt Hoover

With less than three week until Selection Sunday, it’s time for everyone to start paying attention to college basketball if they haven’t already. If you’re one of the clowns that doesn’t really watch college basketball until the tournament because you think the regular season if boring, you missed one of the most exiting regular seasons in any sport that I can remember. The clusterfuck that is the 2012-13 season makes Syria look like as orderly as an OCD guy’s sock drawer. Seriously, you goofballs missed out big time. But I’m here to save your asses as usual. Here are some dos and don’ts for you people as you start thinking about your brackets...

DO: take Indiana’s #1 ranking seriously. A about a month and a half ago, it was very fashionable to suggest that there were no truly elite teams in college hoops this year and that the field was pretty wide opened. Down the conference stretch, though, Indiana has separated itself from the pack. With wins against Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan State (2), it’s clear that this extremely balanced team is for real. Their only losses this year came against a dangerous Butler team (more on them further down) in OT, a decent Wisconsin team (more on them further down as well!), and at Illinois on a rather fluky last-second play during which Cody Zeller decided to snuggle up and take a little nappie. The Hoosiers will probably at least one more game before tourney time; they still have Ohio State at home, at Michigan, and the Big Ten Tournament. If and when this happens, don’t panic. Indiana and their balanced attack have created enough separation from the field that they’re the de facto favorite to cut down the nets in Atlanta.

EDIT: Yeah, I wrote this before Indiana lost at Minnesota tonight. My faith still isn't shaken, though. Cody Zeller had an awful game tonight, which serves as a nice reminder that no matter how much press Oladipo gets or how much their depth is emphasized, they still rely on the consensus Preseason National Player of the Year to play like the consensus Preseason National Player of the Year. As an aside: I hate Tubby Smith.

He knows.

DON’T: hop on the Georgetown bandwagon. When the new polls came out this week, the Hoyas found themselves ranked in the top 10 for the first time this season. Whatever you do, do not panic. Keep calm. You may want to take a moment tonight to go over emergency procedures and locate your nearest emergency exit. The Hoyas are still coached by John Thompson III, who understands the game of basketball about as well as your average Miami Heat fan. He always recruits a very athletic bunch of players and then coaches a molasses-paced half court offense. It just doesn’t make sense. Unleash your players’ athleticism and let them play. Don’t imprison them within your ill-conceived set offense[1]. Whatever. For this reason, I’ve never had much faith in Georgetown’s abilities in March. No matter how fashionable it may become to get behind the Hoyas this year, I’m sticking by my guns.

Everyone point to Derek's favorite basketball coach! Na, but
Brad Stevens has done a lot with a little already at Butler.
How will his most talented team ever fare in the big dance?

DO: have faith in mid-majors. There are currently 6 mid-majors ranked in the AP Top 25, and the first five teams on the “others receiving votes” list are also mid-majors. Having been ranked in the top 10 or so for a decent chunk of the year, the Gonzaga Foreigners won’t be sneaking up on anybody. Butler is another legitimist Final Four contender. There may not be a hotter team in the country than Saint Louis at the moment. VCU is another team that could make a run. The Mountain West has a chance at getting 4 teams in the tournament. I said in the beginning of the year that the Atlantic 10 would rank 3^rd among all conferences in the number of teams they have in the tournament, and suddenly I don’t look so bat-shit crazy. Basically, mid-majors are one typical-Xavier-year away from having one of their best showings collectively in recent memory.

DON’T: miss Miami at Duke on Saturday, March 2^nd. We will learn a tremendous amount about both teams in their rematch at Cameron Indoor. In spite of what polls are telling us, Duke isn’t the third best team in the country right now, but they’re also not 27 points worse than Miami. Until they get Ryan Kelly back (which sounds like it is going to happen), they’re not a legitimate Final Four contender, but they may be able to make a reasonably deep run in the tournament. Their rematch against Miami should tell us a lot about where this team stands. I also have concerns regarding Miami. They lost by 15 at a miserable Wake Forest team (Iona beat Wake by 28 this year) and played some too-close-for-comfort games against other ACC foes of questionable quality. This game will be a measuring stick for the U as well. If either team wins the game decisively, I will have much more faith in them going forward. Disclaimer, though: If Ryan Kelly comes back (as I suspect he will) close to full health (which may or may not happen), Duke has to be considered on the same level as Indiana

DO: reread my first ever post on here before you fill out your bracket. It’s so tempting to have faith in the Wisconsin Buzzcuts. Ignore that temptation.

DON’T: forget about Louisville or Arizona. Both Louisville and Arizona were considered to be among the best teams in the country at certain points this season. Both have fallen off slightly and are now considered second-tier teams. Louisville, however, is returning a ton of guys that were part of their Final Four run last year and are coached by Rick Pitino, who always seems to have his team playing their best ball in March. Louisville could very well ride their experience, coaching, and defense to another Final Four. They should be considered the most dangerous team out of the Big East in the tourney. Likewise, Arizona should be considered the most dangerous team out of the Pac-12 (much less impressive than being the most dangerous team out of the Big East and a little bit being like the best woman at driving, but hey! Danica Patrick just did something important, I think. I don’t really follow NASCAR. I enjoy sports….). Arizona has had a bit of a strange year. They were supposed to be driven by the high-profile freshmen foursome of Kaleb Tarczewski, Grant Jerrett, Brandon Ashley, and Jackson Callahan. While they’ve all been decent players, none but Callahan have truly lived up to expectations. Instead, Arizona has been relying on upperclassmen for most of their scoring. If Arizona’s freshmen can catch fire (a big “if”), look out.

Even after the tragic death of their head coach/
basketball genius/triangle-and-two pioneer/
frumpy sweater advocate Rick Majerus, St.
Louis is putting together a great season.

DO: watch the conference tournaments. I disagree with the idea of conference tournaments, but I cannot deny how exciting they always prove to be. Obviously, the Big 10 tournament will be exciting and a number one seed or two will probably be on the line. The Big East tournament never disappoints. But don’t sleep on the Big 12 tournament (both Kansas schools and both Oklahoma schools are solid teams), the A-10 tournament (St. Louis, Butler, VCU, La Salle, and Temple are all in the March mix, and several teams have the potential to catch fire during this tournament), and the Pac-12 tournament (a very top-heavy conference with 3 or 4 very good teams). The setup of the NCAA Tournament favors teams that are on fire over teams that are super talented, and we’ve seen many teams carry momentum from their conference tournament into the big dance and end up doing big things. It’s the kind of year where that could easily happen yet again.

DON’T: put Michigan in your Final Four. Michigan has had a very good season, but they simply don’t have what it takes to be playing ball in April. They probably have the most talented backcourt in the country, which has been enough to make them a perpetual top 10 team this season and will be enough to get them through the first few rounds of the tourney, but their somewhat disorganized slashing offense and their lack of an interior presence will be their Achilles’s heels. Not having a big man to throw the ball inside to when perimeter shooting goes cold or the pace is out of control ends up killing a lot of teams in the tourney. I don’t see how Burke and company will be able to avoid the same fate.

DO: mute the TV whenever Seth Greenberg is talking. I didn’t mind the dude at Virginia Tech. I really didn’t. Sure, he didn’t do a whole lot of winning when it mattered most, but he was at a school where football is the big thing and no one really gets on a basketball coach for finishing 4^th in the ACC or whatever. I thought it was a weird move that VT fired him. And nowadays, my God, I wish he was still coaching. He’s horrible. He’s just horrible.

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[1] For a wonderful, wonderful analysis of pacing in college basketball, check out this article by Grantland’s Michael Weinreb.

Guest Post: NFL Insider Joe D’s Mock Draft 1.0

Joe DiGerolamo

First off, I would like to say that it is truly an honor to be a part of the Out of Our League family. I have been reading Matt and Derek’s blog ever since I was a little boy and it’s a dream come true to be featured on their blog. If you think about it, I’m kind of just like Rudy, except I’m not a nerd and I wasn’t offsides. (Run it back, he’s definitely offsides) Anyways, here is my first mock draft of the year.

We're thrilled to host NFL Insider and long-time
friend of the blog Joe DiGerolamo and his first
mock draft of the year. Here, he's photographed
with Derek "The Shark" DeNote.

1.     Kansas City - Luke Joeckel T Texas A&M - If there’s one I have learned about new Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid, from his time with the Eagles it’s that Big Red loves to draft lineman, offensive and defensive (Broderick Bunkley, Danny Watkins, Mike Patterson, Winston Justice, Brandon Graham, etc). This pick to me is simple, its either Star Lotulelei or Luke Joeckel. The reason I lean towards Joeckel is KC spent 4 selections in the past 7 drafts on defensive lineman and will most likely lose T Branden Albert to free agency.

2.     Jacksonville - Star Lotulelei DT Utah - Where to begin with Jacksonville? Jacksonville needs to fill just about every position except for RB so they should go best player available. The best available is Star Lotulelei from Utah, who is my #1 player in the entire draft. What’s not to love about a 6'4 325 DT who can move? Think Haloti Ngata from the Ravens.

3.     Oakland - Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M - Richard Seymour isn’t getting younger and their pass rush is atrocious as is. The Raiders finished 31^st in the league in sacks only behind Jacksonville with 25. That’s pretty pitiful when you consider JJ Watt had 20.5 for the Texans in 2012. Moore is the most consistent pass rusher in this draft but at 250lbs needs to add a few pounds to play DE in the NFL.

4.     Philadelphia - Dee Milliner CB Alabama - First off, I want to comment on Mike Vick’s new one-year deal. What the hell are they thinking? I understand that Vick might seem like a good fit in Chip Kelly’s Jungle Junk offense, but come on. What did Mike Vick do in 2012 to prove he deserves yet another chance? Was it the whopping 12 TD passes? The 10 INTs in 10 games? The game winning drive vs. Cleveland where he threw 2 gift INTs that were dropped? The fact that he once again couldn’t stay healthy for 16 games? I don’t get it. Anyways, it appears as if any day now we will see the end of the Nnamdi Asomugha era in Philly leaving the Eagles with a hole at CB. Milliner is far and away the best DB in this draft so it seems like a no brainer for the Eagles, but then again it might make too much sense. 

5.     Detroit - Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State - Defensive end is a huge hole for the Lions. Kyle Vanden Bosch was released recently, Lawrence Jackson is a free agent and Cliff Avril may not be re-signed. Werner had a great 2012 with the Seminoles recording 13 sacks, 42 tackles and a forced fumble. He could easily play OLB or DE at the next level and would improve the Lions d-line from day one. 

6.     Cleveland - Ezekial Ansah DE BYU - Cleveland’s defense actually was pretty good in 2012. They finished the year right in the middle of the pack in all of the major defensive statistics but still could use an upgrade at DE across from Jabaal Sheard. Ansah is a bit of a one-year wonder after just recording 10 tackles combined in his sophomore and junior seasons, but his upside is tremendous. He plays a lot like Jason Pierre-Paul of the Giants. 

7.     Arizona - Geno Smith QB West Virginia - It’s getting ridiculous in the desert now. To quote everyone’s favorite Benedict Arnold, Lebron James, “It’s about damn time” Arizona gets a quarterback. Look at what they did when Kurt Warner was there. They only went to the Super Bowl and were a Santonio Holmes big toe away from bringing the Lombardi home. So what do they do when Kurt Warner retires? They don’t try to replace him with a competent QB. Since Warner retired they have passed on Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Ryan Mallett & Kirk Cousins. I don’t think Bruce Arians will pass on Geno if he’s there. 

8.     Buffalo - Sharrif Floyd DT Florida - The Bills had the 31st worst rush defense in all of the NFL in 2012 in a division with RBs such as Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Shane Vereen and Steven Ridley. Not exactly household names, which prove just how bad the Bills rush defense was. Floyd is a guy who is shooting up people’s big boards and if he has a good combine could be a top 3 and possibly, the top overall pick in this years draft. Right now, I see him a top 10 selection and a perfect fit for Buffalo. 

9.     New York (Jets) - Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee - If there were ever a team that should just be blown up and rebuilt from scratch, it would be this Jets team. What a mess. I don’t care what the records say; this is the worst team in the NFL. If you disagree, rewatch that Thanksgiving game. The Jets can literally pick any position, except for CB and C. With that being said, the Jets should go WR. There’s nothing too fancy about Patterson, he’s just fast... real fast. He could play out of the backfield as well and could be the Jets version of Randall Cobb. 

10.  Tennessee - Eric Fisher T Central Michigan - As I watched the Senior Bowl practices (No, it’s not pathetic that I watched Senior Bowl practices.), one guy jumped out at me and impressed me more than anyone else. It wasn’t a golden domer or someone from Alabama; it was a Central Michigan Chippewa! Fisher absolutely dominated the nation’s top DE prospects at the practice. Tennessee is the owner of the NFL’s most disappointing running game. Chris Johnson still is a top back but his o-line is a bit questionable. Hell, the Titans finished behind my beloved Packers in rushing, which as Joe Buck loves to remind everyone 940 times a game, is something because they don’t run the ball. Fisher would not only improve the running game but can keep Jake Locker healthy.

11.  San Diego - Dion Jordan OLB Oregon - With Shaun Phillips leaving San Diego, there is a big hole left in the Chargers defense and Jordan could very easily fill that void. Jordan is a guy I really like a lot because he’s a six foot seven OLB. Remember how bat shit crazy ESPN went when JJ “Swatt” Watt knocked down all those balls this passed season? That’s what you could expect from Dion Jordan.

12.  Miami - Lane Johnson T Oklahoma - If Jake Long ends up leaving Miami, which is looking more and more likely, they will need to address the Tackle position ASAP. This free agent class is filled with great talent at Tackle (Ryan Clady, Sam Baker, Branden Albert, Andre Smith, etc.) and the Dolphins have a boat load of money to spend, but with the lack of great OTs in the league they will have to compete with a lot of teams with more desirable situations. The draft may be the best spot for Miami to find their next Jake Long and Lane Johnson is the best available.

13.  Tampa Bay - Desmond Trufant CB Washington - Last year, the Bucs passed on Morris Claiborne and regretted it ever since having the worst pass defense in the NFL last season. They also dealt Aqib Talib to New England last year and Ronde Barber turns 127 next season. (He really does, look it up.) Trufant is the best CB available and should be a lock for Tampa.

14.  Carolina - Kenny Vaccaro S Texas - I know it might be a shock that I’m not projecting Carolina to take a QB since Cam is the definition of hot garbage but believe it or not, they have bigger holes to fill. The bigger hole I’m talking about is safety Haruki Nakamura. He might be worst than Cam. Statistically, Carolina’s pass defense wasn’t too bad, but in a division with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and the emerging Josh Freeman, Nakamura isn’t going to cut it.

15.  New Orleans - Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU - The Saints are switching over to a 3-4 defense, which means they need 2 things: 1) an elite nose tackle 2) an edge pass rusher. There isn’t an elite nose tackle available at this spot and there is a plethora of edge rushers left. My guess is the local product Mingo will be that pass rusher. 

16.  St. Louis - Chance Warmack G Alabama - I believe in Sam Bradford. In fact, I still believe that Sam Bradford could be a top 10 QB in this league. The only problem facing Sam is that the team around him is awful. What my man needs is a better offense line and a few decent receivers. The Rams have 2 first round picks this year, so I expect them to address OL and WR with those picks. Surprisingly, Sam Bradford can’t throw TDs if he’s on the ground, which he was 52 times last year. That needs to stop if they want their 50 million dollar man to still be alive to see the end of his contract. Warmack is the best lineman available. Yes, he is a guard, but any help will do.

17.  Pittsburgh - Jarvis Jones LB Georgia - The future of long-time Steelers LB and fellow Roger Goodell hater, James Harrison, is uncertain. He may be released and even if he isn’t Pittsburgh still needs to look for his heir apparent. Jarvis Jones was projected to go much higher a few weeks ago, but is sliding down the board due to a spine issue. His potential is through the roof, which makes him a risk worth taking.

18.  Dallas - Barrett Jones OL Alabama - The reason I put OL for Jones instead of T, G or C is because he plays every position on the offensive line. How awesome is that? Jones isn’t projected to go in the first round, which I think is comical. He paved the way for a Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, and a 2012 top 5 selection, Trent Richardson. Oh yeah, he also won 3 National Championship at Alabama. Dallas, once again, needs to upgrade their o-line. Mainly, the interior o-line.

19.  New York (Giants) - Alec Ogletree LB Georgia - Originally, I had the Giants taking Manti Te’o with this pick, but could you imagine the cluster fuck that would be? Manti Te’o, the guy who stole headlines earlier this year with the fake girlfriend hoax, dealing with the New York media everyday? If you thought TebowMania was bad, just imagine this. Hell, all Tebow ever did was take a 2-win team to a division crown and a playoff win and he still gets crucified (no pun intended). The Giants need to upgrade at LB because Keith Rivers is gone and Chase Blackburn sucks. 

20.  Chicago - DJ Fluker T Alabama - People give Jay Cutler a hard time. I am not one of these people. Much like Sam Bradford, he can’t throw TDs if he’s getting sacked every play. Sure, its nice that he finally got a big time target last offseason in Brandon Marshall, but he needs time to throw to him. Although, Jones and Warmack were selected ahead of Fluker in this draft, I feel DJ can have the best pro career and is the most pro-ready. 

21.  Cincinnati - Keenan Allen WR California - This was another spot where I considered Te’o being selected, however, the Bengals locker room might be the most dysfunctional of all in the league. It seems like just about every offseason we see 4 or 5 Bengal thugs getting arrested. They would tear Manti to pieces. AJ Green is, in my opinion, the best WR in football. He does all of this while facing double coverage every week. Imagine how scary he would be if he had just a little bit of help. Cincy should draft him a legit number 2, like Keenan Allen from Cal. 

22.  St. Louis - DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson - Remember what I said earlier? The Rams should address o-line and WR. Now, here’s the WR pick. In a weak WR class this is a bit of a reach but they desperately need to upgrade. 

23.  Minnesota - Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri - Percy Harvin might be traded this offseason so they would love to find his replacement here. However, like I said in the previous pick the WR class is weak. The Vikes will most likely make a play for former Packer WR Greg Jennings because they love Green Bay’s washed up sloppy seconds. Minnesota would then need to draft the future at DT being that Kevin Williams turns 33 in August. Richardson is by far the best player available. He’s fallen this far because every year there is that guy that hangs around way too long and this year he is it. 

Is that Andrew Luck or Matt Hoover? I can't tell.

24.  Indianapolis - Jonathan Cooper G/C North Carolina - Indianapolis is another squad who could use a WR for my man (and Matt Hoover doppelganger) Andrew Luck. They also need to replace Jeff Saturday, who played for Green Bay last season. Cooper, ironically, went to North Carolina which is also where Saturday went. That’s kind of neat. 

25.  Seattle - Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame - On the defensive side of the ball, Seattle may have the best unit in the NFL with self-proclaimed greatest CB ever, Richard Sherman, so they are set there. Offensively they aren’t too bad either. Hell, they catch interceptions for touchdowns for Christ’s Sake! Where Seattle lacks a bit is TE. Zach Miller had decent campaign but they could still use an upgrade. Eifert would be a nice target for RusselMania. 

26.  Green Bay - Manti Te’o LB Notre Dame - This is a perfect fit for both Manti and Green Bay. It works for Green Bay because GM Ted Thompson always picks for best player available over reaching for a position of need. (Aaron Rodgers in 05, Jordy Nelson in 08) Te’o without a doubt is the best available. It also fills a position of need for GB. AJ Hawk might be another casualty for the Pack and Desmond Bishop is coming off a season ending hamstring injury. This works for Te’o because the Packers are a stable organization with a locker room full of high character guys who won’t get on him for the whole fake dead girlfriend fiasco. 

27.  Houston - Zach Ertz TE Stanford - Owen Daniels has been a bit of a disappointment for the Texans in the passed couple of years. He can’t stay healthy and his production is way down from where it should be. The only legit passing option Houston has is Andre Johnson. Schaub could use another weapon, but again, this is a weak WR class. Their best bet is too upgrade at TE by drafting Ertz. 

28.  Denver - Giovanni Bernard RB North Carolina - Denver was a very one-dimensional team. They only threw the ball, which is weird, because the year before was the complete opposite. In 2011, they had a healthy/younger Willis McGahee to run the rock but last season lacked a running game. Bernard is a speedster, who I believe will jump ahead of Alabama RB Eddie Lacy at the combine. 

Hopefully for Atlanta's sake, Alex isn't as
big of a draft bust as Emeka was.

29.  New England - Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State - The Pats lack an interior rush prescience. Vince Wilfork is a great run stuffer but doesn’t get after the QB enough. Hankins could provide the pass rush that they need.

30.  Atlanta - Alex Okafor DE/OLB Texas - We saw how Colin Kaepernick was able to run around on the baby bottom soft Atlanta D in the NFC Championship because of the Falcons lack of pass rush. John Abraham was once a great DE in this league but that day is long gone. 

31.  San Francisco - Matt Elam S Florida - How bad did Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner and that homophobic idiot Chris Culiver look in the Super Bowl? Jacoby Jones looked like Jerry Rice and Joe Flacco looked like Montana especially on their long TD reception. Safety play was the deciding factor in the Super Bowl and while need to be addressed if the Niners want to get to North Jersey next February. 

32.  Baltimore - Kevin Minter MLB LSU - If you haven’t heard, Ray Lewis retired. As much as I couldn’t stand Ray Lewis this season, there is no denying his impact on the Ravens defense. Minter won’t be able to fill Ray Ray’s shoes, but he could be a pretty solid replacement for former accomplice-to-murderer/Super Bowl MVP, Ray Lewis. 

Our Take on MJ vs LeBron

Derek DeNote

Matt Hoover

...who gives a fuck?